Caspian Sea Water Levels and Climate Change: A Satellite Perspective

Satellite imagery shows a significant reduction in the size of the Caspian Sea. The images shocked experts when the imagery starkly proved the largest inland water body had undergone substantial damages in the past years. 

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Previous satellite images captured on September 20, 2006, are significantly different from those taken on September 19, 2022. The deterioration is evident, and certainly troubling, as the extent of the deterioration seems to have reached a potentially irreversible state.

What happened to the Caspian Sea?

The most recent images of the Caspian Sea, captured only about a year ago in September of 2022, exhibited utterly prominent light gray areas and white patches along the coastline of the Caspian Sea.

In the southeastern region, where the Sor Kaydak inlet once existed, one can also observe affected areas. NASA Earth Observatory attributed these patches to most likely salt and mineral residues product of evaporation.

Back in 2006, the conditions differed vastly from those of current times, as, contrary to the present time, there was no evidence of evaporation or shrinking at the time. 

In contrast, 2022 images showed the entire convoluted region seen in the lower right corner of the 2006 imagery has completely disappeared.

Research indicates that the lake’s water level has been steadily decreasing over a significant period, as the extent of its reduction cannot reasonably be attributed to damage occurring over just a couple of years. 

Experts in climate change affirm the condition of the Caspian Sea carries negative implications for both the environment and the human population. For instance, the Caspian Sea serves as the world’s largest breeding ground for sturgeon and provides a habitat for the Caspian Seal, the sole marine mammal residing there.

Although the most evident consequences behind the shrinking of the Caspian Sea are linked to environmental matters, its impact goes far beyond that. The changes in the water level hold a significant economic importance for the communities inhabiting its shores. 

The environmental emergency has a direct impact on fishing and agricultural activities, as it is a crucial resource for the surrounding communities.

Shrinking of the Caspian Sea: a look into the not-so-bright future

Climate change has been a hot topic for the past decades. History tells us that it only gets worse and evidence predicts the same unfortunate future for humanity.

Evidence from a study conducted in 2020 suggests when it comes to inland seas, reservoirs, and other bodies of water, governments should pay special focus on the development of strategies that tackle –either preventing or stopping– the shrinking of waters like those of the Caspian Sea. 

This particular study brought attention to the possibility that the water levels in the Caspian Sea decreased by 9-18 meters by the end of this century. 

This likely scenario leaves humanity facing harsh consequences in both the ecosystem and the communities surrounding. Life could definitely be unrecognizable by then.

As demonstrated by the diminishing situation in the Caspian Sea, the consequences of our changing climate will unfold over decades. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report reveals that environmental risks are at the forefront of global concerns. 

In consequence, climate action failure, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss are anticipated to be the most severe global risks in the coming decade, as highlighted in the latest 2022 edition of the report.

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State of emergency over the Caspian Sea

Authorities of Kazakstan have already declared a state of emergency due to the reduction in water levels of the Caspian Sea. The government recognizes the severe threats the shrinking represents for both the economy and environmental conditions of the region. 

In June 2023, the local government officials in Aktay, the capital of Kazakhstan’s western Mangystau region, raised concerns about the diminishing situation of the Caspian Sea, claiming the problem had vastly evolved since 2016, reaching a critical point in 2022, as shown in the satellite images.

About the emergency, the Ministry of Ecology claimed, “This can be explained by the fact that the given area of the sea has mild slopes of the seabed and adjacent shoreline, and even small changes in the sea level contribute to significant flooding or shrinking of the coast.

During the period, the area of the body water declined by more than 22,000 square kilometers, and over half of them belong to the Kazakstan section of the Northern Caspian Sea”.

Although this is not the first time the Caspian Sea has suffered fluctuation in its water levels, this decrease is particularly alarming when compared to previous ones.

Between 1930 and 1941 the water levels in the Caspian Sea suffered a decrease from -26.07 meters BHS (Baltic Normal Height System) to -27.85 meters BHS. This measurement method is commonly used to gauge water levels. 

Later on, in the 1960s and 1970s, the Caspian Sea waters reached a low point of -29 meters, which resulted in alterations to the shoreline and coastal desertification.

The sea levels began to rise after 1978, reaching 26.62 meters BHS by 1995. 

Nonetheless, since 2006, the Caspian Sea has undergone evident shrinking. In 2022, the sea level dropped to -28.7 meters BHS.

The Ministry of Ecology of Kazakstan emphasized, “The decline in sea level to -28.5 meters, given the Caspian Sea’s historical context, has critical implications for both its ecosystem and the maritime sector”.

Experts concur that the primary driver behind these fluctuations is climate change. The elevated temperatures have resulted in a combination of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation. It’s safe to say the effects of climate change are now visible from outer space.

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