Colombia will become a net importer of natural gas by 2026: government’s energy transition plan described as “energy rendition”
After the national government published the Fair Energy Transition Roadmap for citizen participation, industrial engineer and energy expert Sergio Cabrales revealed that the document for Colombia’s energy transition estimates that the country will significantly increase gas and oil imports in the coming years.
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According to Cabrales, in 2026, the last year of the current administration, Colombia will become a net importer of natural gas.
This situation is estimated due to the decrease in gas reserves in the coming years, the increase in demand and the national government’s decision to stop the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons, a fundamental commitment of its energy transition policy.
The Energy Transition Roadmap also foresees an increase in imports of this hydrocarbon to the country, which currently enters through Buenaventura, but which in 2025 will also begin to arrive through Cartagena.
Según la Hoja de Ruta de la Transición Energética Justa de @petrogustavo, se prevé que Colombia se convierta en un importador neto de gas natural después de 2026, ya que las reservas domésticas comenzarán a declinar fuertemente, mientras que la demanda continuará aumentando pic.twitter.com/iGYjYR0Zvj
— Sergio Cabrales (@SergioCabrales) August 2, 2023
According to estimates in the government document, by 2026 Colombia will have a similar level of natural gas reserves to what it had in 2022, when they were close to 1,100 million cubic feet per day (mpcd).
From that year, reserves will begin to decrease and, parallel to this, gas imports will increase, which will enter through Buenaventura and, from 2025, through the port of Cartagena. With this, the country will become a net importer.
Likewise, Sergio Cabrales warned that our country is at risk of becoming a net oil importer in 2028:
Según la Hoja de Ruta de la Transición Energética Justa de @petrogustavo, se prevé que Colombia se convierta en un importador neto de crudo después del 2028 pic.twitter.com/kubVWh56Vu
— Sergio Cabrales (@SergioCabrales) August 2, 2023
These warnings, which point to a loss of national energy sovereignty, are not insignificant, especially after seeing what has happened in Europe. Indeed, the energy security of the Old Continent has been affected by the war in Ukraine, since it relies, to a large extent, on the supply of natural gas from Russia.
Colombia’s energy future is also of concern in light of the Roadmap estimates, according to which, by 2050, global oil demand will be between 30 and 100 million barrels per day.
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Energy Transition: Stirring over the risk of increasing gas imports in Colombia
Cabrales’ warning caused a great stir in the national public opinion, given the risk that the Colombian energy matrix will have a strong dependence on hydrocarbons from other countries.
This strong dependence means that the country will no longer be able to produce the energy it needs for the functioning of the economy and households. In turn, gas and oil imports will increase energy supply costs, which will be reflected in energy bills and higher production costs.
The prospect of Colombia increasing gas and oil imports as a result of the energy transition policy has raised concerns among academics and Colombian political personalities.
Marelen Castillo, Representative to the Chamber of Deputies and former Vice-Presidential candidate in the last elections, asked the President of the Republic, Gustavo Petro, if the energy transition means losing energy sovereignty, despite having available resources to explore and exploit hydrocarbons.
Señor @petrogustavo, ¿la transición consiste en perder nuestra soberanía energética, a pesar de tener recursos para explorar y explotar a nuestra disposición? Cuéntenos, ¿a qué país le comprará el gas para suplir la demanda? https://t.co/A552zkeMD9
— Marelen Castillo (@CastilloMarelen) August 3, 2023
To this message was added the harsh statement of the former Minister of Agriculture, Juan Camilo Restrepo, who assured that there would be no “energy transition” but “energy rendition”.
Eso no es transición energética; es rendición energética. Costosa para el país https://t.co/aaERd6YECD
— Juan Camilo Restrepo (@RestrepoJCamilo) August 2, 2023
For his part, the former Minister of Finance and former rector of the Universidad del Rosario, José Manuel Restrepo, stated that “it is urgent to reconsider the decision not to sign new oil and gas exploration contracts”.
Este no puede ser el camino !! Urge reconsiderar la decisión de no firmar nuevos contratos de exploración de gas y de petróleo. Es a la luz de estos datos cualquier decisión distinta una muy desatinada. https://t.co/UupAactfkg
— José Manuel Restrepo Abondano (@jrestrp) August 2, 2023
To read the Energy Transition Roadmap, please click on this link.
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