Conflict in Syria and the bitter victory of the U.S.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria will not bring the expected peace, leaving the United States and Israel with an ambivalent victory. The country remains fragmented, with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, successor to Al Qaeda, the Twin Towers group, in power. In a decade more than 300,000 civilians have died and there are millions of refugees. The long war has left Syria a geopolitical battlefield.
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The beginning of chaos and hidden hands
In 2011 Syria entered the storm of the “Arab Spring”. What began as a popular clamor for more justice and freedoms quickly turned into a theater of war. The first peaceful protests ended up being put down by the government of Bashar al-Assad, unleashing a conflict that surpassed all forecasts. The streets were filled with violence and, as the chaos grew, international actors entered the game with their own interests.
What initially appeared to be a popular insurrection was seized by the United States and its allies as a strategic opportunity. The goal: to weaken a government aligned with Russia and Iran. But, as the country bled to death, the opposition groups showed their diversity and different factions of radical Islamists managed from outside played a leading role in the struggle.
The irruption of Al Golani and the paradox of power
Not all opposition groups were seeking the same thing. Factions multiplied. The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammad al-Golani, is a figure who embodies the contradiction of the Syrian conflict. The United States, which had labeled him as a global terrorist and offered million-dollar rewards for his capture, ended up being his indirect backer.
Al Golani took advantage of the situation to position himself as a viable alternative to the Assad regime, even trying to wash his image through interviews in international media such as CNN.
In the end, Bashar al Assad, cornered and without sufficient support from his traditional allies, such as Russia and Iran, chose to go into exile. The government was left in the hands of HTS, which represents a bitter victory for the United States that achieved the desired goal of removing Bashar al Assad. But the enemy they helped empower could become a bigger problem.

Russia, Turkey and Iran: conflicting interests
Meanwhile, regional powers also took advantage of the Syrian crumbling. Russia intervened militarily at Assad’s request in 2016. With the conflict in Ukraine occupying its resources, Moscow found itself unable to wage a huge war.
Turkey, under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, used the crisis as an excuse to attack the Kurds, who had achieved relative autonomy in northern Syria. For Erdogan, preventing this autonomy from spreading to Turkey was a priority. Moreover, Ankara instrumentalized the return of millions of Syrian refugees as a domestic political card.
For its part, Iran, weakened by economic sanctions and its own fight against Israel, also reduced its support. Hezbollah, its main ally in the region, faced an untenable scenario: worn out by years of fighting and unable to intervene on two fronts at the same time.
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Israel and the shadow of Mount Hermon
Israel, always alert to any threat in the region, wasted no time. After Assad’s departure, its forces occupied Mount Hermon, a strategic area that had never fallen into Israeli hands since 1973. With the Golan Heights already under its control for decades, Israel extended its influence in Syrian territory with the argument of guaranteeing its security.
Bombings of military installations and preemptive strikes multiplied. For Israel, Assad’s departure was just another step in its strategy to contain Iran and Hezbollah. But, paradoxically, the instability created could be a long-term threat.

Balkanization: a familiar strategy
What is happening in Syria is not new. The strategy of dividing and fragmenting countries to weaken their influence was already applied by the United States in Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. Henry Kissinger said it in 2013: a country divided into autonomous regions would be the best scenario.
The overthrow of Assad has weakened the so-called Axis of Resistance – Yemen, Hamas, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – the rapprochement of Turkey and the Gulf monarchies to the BRICS will remain to be seen, which represents a partial victory for the United States and Israel. However, the presence of an extremist government like HTS creates new uncertainties. Syria, now fragmented and exhausted, remains a shadow of its former self.
The human price of war
Behind the geopolitical movements, the greatest cost has been paid by the civilian population. The conflict has left more than 300,000 civilians dead. Five and a half million refugees have sought asylum in Turkey, Europe and neighboring countries. Seven million internally displaced persons, trapped in their own country.
Historic cities like Aleppo and Homs reduced to rubble. Makeshift refugee camps are the temporary home of millions of people who, after years of war, are only looking to survive.

A bleak future
Assad’s departure does not mean the end of the conflict in Syria. With HTS in power and the continued intervention of foreign powers, the country remains a battleground. As the U.S., Israel, Russia and Turkey seek to consolidate their interests, the reconstruction of Syria seems a distant dream.
The international landscape also plays a role. Syria occupies a key place in China’s projected new Silk Road, and the war in Ukraine, are pieces of the same puzzle. For his part, Trump has always made it a priority to attack Iran, which is isolated from its Syrian ally.
The instability in the region and the clashes seem far from being resolved, Syria is trapped between the power of the global powers and the suffering of its people. The price of war has been too high, and the prospects for peace are as uncertain as the future of the region.
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