The Historical Conflict Over Nagorno Karabakh

It all began in 1988 when ethnic Armenians residing in the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), which was then part of Soviet Azerbaijan, commenced their demands for the region’s transfer to Armenia. As the Soviet Union crumbled, tensions escalated into a full-blown war. 

This conflict persisted until 1994, during which time Nagorno Karabakh, along with seven neighboring districts, fell under Armenian control. 

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This period of turmoil led to the tragic displacement of over a million people, including Azerbaijanis who sought refuge in Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh, and other territories, as well as Armenians who were forced to abandon their homes in Azerbaijan.

Nagorno Karabakh: The conflict throughout time

This conflict has continued to develop, in fact, the Nagorno Karabakh is actually the longest-running conflict in post-Soviet Eurasia. The Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), which was a part of Soviet Azerbaijan at the time, was home to ethnic Armenians who started agitating for the land to be given to their country in 1988. 

Tensions increased as the Soviet Union began to fall apart, eventually escalating into a full-fledged war. The ensuing wars lasted until 1994, at which point Nagorno Karabakh and seven neighboring districts were ruled by Armenia. 

Tragically, during this time of conflict, over a million people were displaced, including Azerbaijanis who fled to Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh, and other territories, as well as Armenians who were forced to abandon their homes in Azerbaijan.

The situation remained extremely tumultuous over time, characterized by intermittent bloodshed, the use of attack drones, significant military build-up along the front lines, and missions by special operations forces. 

From 1994 through 2020, these elements repeatedly emphasized the remaining threat of a new breakout of war. A particularly brutal and deadly round of fighting that lasted four days in April 2016 in the area resulted in hundreds of deaths on both sides. This sad Nagorno Karabakh tragedy served as a sharp reminder of the fragile nature of the situation, anticipating the events that would follow.

The dam burst incident in September 2020 triggered a series of events that ultimately led to a renewed and full-scale conflict, which commenced on September 27 of the same year.

This brutal confrontation persisted for six grueling weeks until a ceasefire was brokered by the Russian Federation on November 10. While this ceasefire agreement fell short of establishing a solid and enduring peace, it did succeed in putting an end to the most devastating warfare the region had witnessed in nearly three decades. 

This Nagorno Karabakh conflict exacted a heavy toll, resulting in the loss of over 7,000 military personnel, approximately 170 civilians, and several others who were caught in the crossfire.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan regained full control over seven areas that had been previously held by Armenian forces in close proximity to Nagorno Karabakh. 

Moreover, it secured a substantial portion of Nagorno Karabakh itself. The remainder of Nagorno Karabakh, while still governed by a self-declared local administration, is now under the protection and oversight of a Russian peacekeeping force.

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Nagorno Karabakh: Current landscape

During a recent trip to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan joyfully praised Azerbaijan’s successful capture of Nagorno Karabakh. Shortly after Baku’s lightning military campaign culminated in the seizure of Nagorno Karabakh, an area with a predominately Armenian population, this visit acted as a symbolic show of support.

Erdogan stressed the enormous potential that has arisen for regional stability during his meeting with his Azerbaijani colleague, Ilham Aliyev, during his visit. He emphasized the significance of seizing this chance while it is still available. Haluk Gorgun, the director of Turkey’s Defense Industry Agency, stood next to him.

Although the two presidents’ visit was officially intended to kick off a project to build a gas pipeline, they also spoke about Nagorno Karabakh. Aliyev reaffirmed his commitment to upholding the rights of ethnic Armenians residing in the enclave, saying that the Azerbaijani state would ensure their welfare.

On Monday, a wave of Nagorno Karabakh refugees started arriving in Armenia in search of safety from the authoritarian Azerbaijani government’s possible expulsion or reprisal.

Nakhchivan’s importance should not be underestimated. This independent, landlocked exclave of Azerbaijan has become involved in yet another international conflict. It is geographically separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by the Zangezur corridor, a sliver of Armenian land.

Vasif Talibov founded a local authoritarian dictatorship in Nakhchivan that lasted from 1995 until 2022 and was characterized by accusations of corruption and severe crackdowns on the opposition. It should be noted that he is related to the Aliyev family by marriage.

During the hostilities of the 1990s, Armenia placed a protracted embargo on Nakhchivan, and all rail and road connections between the exclave and the Azerbaijani mainland were destroyed.

It is anticipated that Erdogan and Aliyev would push for the construction of a new land connection between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan during their meeting. Reuniting the exclave with the mainland through such a corridor would provide Turkey access to the wider Turkic world via a crucial strategic land route.

Russia, which has forces stationed in Nagorno Karabakh since 2020, has signaled a cautious interest in the concept of such a corridor.

Erdogan’s trip comes at a time when Armenia is complaining that its security partner, Russia, did not provide enough assistance during the most recent clashes. Moscow vehemently refutes these assertions. 

Russia has expressed its appreciation for the news of the meeting between Erdogan and Aliyev and its hope that such diplomatic efforts will help Nagorno Karabakh return to normal after recent upheavals. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, emphasized the importance of these meetings for the future stability of the region and expressed this position clearly.

The Nagorno Karabakh war —source of decades of unrest— poses a difficult and enduring problem for the South Caucasus. The necessity of a thorough and durable resolution is underscored by the conflict’s historical roots, protracted periods of bloodshed, and recent increase. 

It is a crucial issue that necessitates ongoing international attention and diplomatic efforts to bring about peace and security in the region because of its impact on the lives of countless people and the constantly changing geopolitical circumstances.

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