Watch out: the eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano could take these paths if it occurs
The activity of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano continues to be unstable. The Colombian Geological Service (SGC) has said that seismic activity continues due to the breaking of rock inside the volcano, in addition to the emission of high columns of ash, water vapor and volcanic gases.
We talked to Rodolfo Franco, a specialist in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), forestry engineer and professor at the Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, about the risks faced by the inhabitants of the areas surrounding the Nevado del Ruiz volcano.
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Did you make a model of the rivers with the greatest threat of lahar or avalanche in an eventual eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano? Can you tell us a little more about this?
I prepared, in addition to the animation, a light version specially designed to be viewed by cell phone so that it loads faster, something called a ‘web map’.
The Colombian Geological Service, in 2015, published the third version of the threat map of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano. This arose from a study of many antecedents, of eruptions, not only that of Armero, but of centuries and centuries ago, even from the records of ash deposits that fell thousands of years ago and of solidified lava, lava turned into stone millions of years ago. From these geological records, the history of the volcano is known.
This is the third version of the SGC threat map. There was a version in the year 85, after the tragedy; another one in the year 86 and a last one in 2015, already with better technologies, with more studies and with a growing group of experts.
These polygons were not created by me. It is simply the transcription of those same areas zoned by the SGC. Without getting too long, I will explain how this is handled. First, we have the colors similar to the alerts.
The area near the volcano is really a volcanic complex. That is, there are several craters, but when one refers to the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, one is practically referring to the Arenas crater.
From their studies, SGC experts have determined that, in the event of an eruption with pyroclastic characteristics, there would be a potential for that very dangerous material to fall in the darker area, so this is the area of greatest danger.
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The invitation to the people who are there is that the evacuation should have already taken place. Afterwards, if nothing happens and it is time to go back, then that means that we have done our job well.
This pyroclastic material may accumulate and go down the main riverbeds, the main rivers, such as the Gualí river, which is descending and crossing the municipalities of Herveo and Casabianca, it continues descending and may even reach Mariquita and even Honda.
This is known because there are precedents. In the eruption that devastated Armero in 1985, part of the population of Honda was affected by the flooding of the Gualí. So, there are antecedents of that.
This does not mean that in case of an eruption, all rivers will be the way for avalanches or what they call a lahar. Not necessarily. What it does mean is that they have the potential to occur. Another river where there could be a descent is the Azufrado river, through the municipality of Villahermosa in Tolima. The Azufrado river connects with the Lagunilla river, which originates further upstream, in the rural part of the municipality of Murillo.
It was precisely through the Lagunilla river, descending this steep slope, through this steep descent, where the avalanche that later devastated Armero, in November 1985, came down.
In the map, let’s look at this red zone. In the event of such an eruption, this would be a worrying area, with pyroclastic material, with hot and deadly clouds.
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